Digit Draw
How it works
Marking numbers
Eighty numbers are on the board. Mark between two and ten of them, then twenty are drawn. How many of your marks appear decides the round.
Fewer marks, sharper odds
Marking two numbers pays a great deal for hitting both and nothing otherwise. Marking ten pays something for six matches and more for each additional one. Both shapes are printed before you choose.
Nothing carries over
Each draw is independent of the last. Numbers that have not appeared recently are not due, and the board does not remember them.
Rewards
| Outcome | Reward | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2 marked, 2 matched | 11 : 1 | |
| 3 marked, 2 matched | 1 : 1 | |
| 3 marked, 3 matched | 42 : 1 | |
| 4 marked, 2 matched | 1 : 1 | |
| 4 marked, 3 matched | 4 : 1 | |
| 4 marked, 4 matched | 100 : 1 | |
| 5 marked, 3 matched | 2 : 1 | |
| 5 marked, 4 matched | 14 : 1 | |
| 5 marked, 5 matched | 390 : 1 | |
| 6 marked, 3 matched | 1 : 1 | |
| 6 marked, 4 matched | 6 : 1 | |
| 6 marked, 5 matched | 60 : 1 | |
| 6 marked, 6 matched | 1300 : 1 | |
| 7 marked, 3 matched | 1 : 1 | |
| 7 marked, 4 matched | 3 : 1 | |
| 7 marked, 5 matched | 18 : 1 | |
| 7 marked, 6 matched | 200 : 1 | |
| 7 marked, 7 matched | 4000 : 1 | |
| 8 marked, 4 matched | 2 : 1 | |
| 8 marked, 5 matched | 10 : 1 | |
| 8 marked, 6 matched | 50 : 1 | |
| 8 marked, 7 matched | 750 : 1 | |
| 8 marked, 8 matched | 12000 : 1 | |
| 9 marked, 4 matched | 1 : 1 | |
| 9 marked, 5 matched | 5 : 1 | |
| 9 marked, 6 matched | 25 : 1 | |
| 9 marked, 7 matched | 150 : 1 | |
| 9 marked, 8 matched | 2200 : 1 | |
| 9 marked, 9 matched | 25000 : 1 | |
| 10 marked, 5 matched | 3 : 1 | |
| 10 marked, 6 matched | 12 : 1 | |
| 10 marked, 7 matched | 70 : 1 | |
| 10 marked, 8 matched | 500 : 1 | |
| 10 marked, 9 matched | 4000 : 1 | |
| 10 marked, 10 matched | 80000 : 1 |
The odds
Hypergeometric, not binomial
Twenty numbers are drawn without replacement from eighty, so each draw changes the odds for the next. The chance of hitting all ten of ten marks is roughly one in nine million.
A wide margin, honestly stated
At eight percent this is one of the widest games on the site. It buys a very long tail — the rewards for the rare outcomes are the largest here — and that trade is worth seeing clearly.
Guide
Why cards are different
A grid draws afresh every round. A deck does not: every card that has already appeared changes what is left, so the odds move while the hand is in progress. That is the only family here where what you have seen tells you something.
Order of play is the whole game
In most card games the house acts last and knows more when it acts. The rules that look arbitrary — draw to sixteen, fold below a threshold, act before the fifth card — are all attempts to price that asymmetry.
Where the margin lives
A well-played card game has one of the narrowest margins anywhere: a fraction of a percent. Played carelessly, the same game can cost ten times that. The gap between the two numbers is the value of knowing the rule.
A caution about systems
Doubling after a loss does not change any game's margin. It changes the shape of the loss — many small wins and one very large loss — and the total expected result stays exactly where it was.
Credits are virtual. They cannot be bought, transferred or cashed out.